The Uncertain
Hoplodrina octogenaria
Hoplodrina octogenaria, the uncertain, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in the Palearctic realm. Source
Where it is now
No records in the last 8 weeks. It may be out of season where the observers and sensors are.
See the The Uncertain on the live map
Movement and weather
Each season it is first heard regularly where daytime highs are around 17°C (typically 17 to 19°C, from 7 areas). That holds across 15° of latitude, which suggests its timing follows temperature more than the calendar.
Over the weeks it was present in the past year, its centre in Europe ranged from 50°N in June to 62°N in August, about 1,300 km apart.
Arrival dates
The week it was first heard regularly in each region, after at least six weeks away. Dates differ from south to north, so a region has a range.
| Region | First arrival | Last arrival | Typical peak | Areas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 1 June 2026 | 22 June 2026 | 6 July 2026 | 7 |
Figures are effort corrected and come from automatic sound identification, which makes mistakes. How this is measured and how it compares with human observers.